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tv   Bloomberg Bottom Line  Bloomberg  June 16, 2014 2:00pm-3:01pm EDT

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>> from bloomberg or when -- bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i'm mark crumpton and this is "bottom line." iraqi forces fight militants as mr. al-maliki says his army is gaming ground. highlights of tom keene's interview with christine lagarde -- is gaining ground. the audi r8ok at sports car. viewers here in the united states and those of us joining us from around the world, welcome. we have full coverage of the stocks and stories making
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headlines. matt miller goes for a test drive with audi of america's executive. michael mckee examines the supreme court ruling on argentine debt. we begin at the white house with more on the violent situation in iraq. >> good afternoon. for the better part of three years, president obama has made his ability to remove u.s. troops from iraqi one of his foreign policy accomplishments. over the last four days, the u.s. is moving back towards iraq. what we've seen has been a deliberate effort, both in naval assets and in drone operations, for the u.s. to try to get a handle on a situation that escalated very quickly and directly threatens the iraqi government in baghdad. air andident is in the on his way back to washington, d.c., from southern california. when he lands, there will be serious questions as to whether there will be some type of airstrike either through drones or planes. it is definitely on the table.
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>> iran and the united states share an interest in putting down to my -- down sunni extremists. is there a possibility the two will ally. >> at the moment, it looks like yes according to u.s. officials. john kerry said the u.s. would be open to conversations with iraq on some sort of alliance on some-- with iran sort of alliance related to iraq if the conversations were both constructive and respected the sovereignty of iraq. senator john mccain, a top republican critical of the administration's foreign policy, said there is no way the u.s. and iran could have an alignment that would work in this case. u.s. officials are open to the possibility of one. >> the administration started to move embassy personnel from berg -- from baghdad this weekend. do the u.s. officials think that baghdad could actually fall?
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likes we're being told it is truly a precautionary measure. -- >> we're being told it is truly a precautionary measure. you have to look at it couple of ways. in the wake of benghazi and the attack that killed four americans, the consulate -- the u.s. is very cautious of how they treat embassy personnel. this has moved so quickly over the last couple of days that the u.s. wants to ensure that in no way will any of their personnel be in danger whatsoever. administration officials are clear they don't believe baghdad is in the process of falling, but they are going to make darn sure that, if anything bad happens, u.s. officials are protected. >> bloomberg's phil mattingly from the white house. served aser, who national security adviser to president clinton, will weigh in on the escalating crisis and u.s. efforts to deal with the situation. that's coming up in just a few minutes. tonight on "charlie rose." charlie sits down with the president of the council on
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foreign relations. they began by discussing what led to the latest eruption of sectarian violence in iraq. -- it removedelf the old authority and saddam hussein. afterwards, we dismantled many of the institutions that provided for security in iraq. that's one thing. then the obama administration came in after the surge and the critique will be not so much what it did, but didn't do -- not pushing harder to have a so-called residual force to remain in iraq to dampen down political rivalries, to train up the iraqis better than they are. also, that we did not press as hard as we could have or should have to get the iraqis to make a general government. a corruptiki has run government. when people don't fight for it, that should tell you something. they don't feel a national identity. this is not their government. this is essentially mr. maliki's
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government. there is blame to go around two american administrations and the iraqi themselves. >> you can watch the full interview with the president of the council on foreign relations tonight at 8:00 and 10:00 p.m. new york time on bloomberg television. staying international in scope, argentina may have to pay billions of dollars to hold out bondholders -- to holdout bondholders after the u.s. supreme court refused to hear the country's appeal. argentina says it would rather default again. bloomberg's economics editor mike mckee has been following this. >> here is where the story -- what the story is so far. argentina defaulted on its international bonds, $95 billion worth. they restructured those, essentially paying people $.30 on the dollar. 92% of the bondholders accepted. in the 8%, a couple of hedge
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funds decided they wanted to get paid in full. they sued the argentines. in u.s. court, they have won on the argument that a clause means equal treatment they can't be treated any differently from any other bondholder if they are owed a certain amount of money. they still hold the old bonds. they claim they have to be paid. tocould be about $15 billion the people who are suing. >> argentina says it won't comply. >> they've given mixed messages. initially, they said they wouldn't comply and they said the u.s. court has no jurisdiction. in their last filing, they said they might comply. there have been some hints they might want to negotiate with these holdouts, see if they can lower the costs. they will owe $13 billion in a bond payment at the end of june. if they don't pay that, then they might have to default him a if they don't pay the
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outstanding bondholders at the same time they make that payment -- have to default if they don't pay the outstanding bondholders at the same time they make that payment. >> -- >> they claim the argentines have the money. the argentines say they don't. if you print money, that leads to higher inflation. that is hard on the argentine people. there is a problem for the rest of the world. the next country that wants to go into default and restructure its bonds, who is going to talk with them if you feel like you can hold out and get paid in full at the end? >> thank you. coming up, will baghdad fall? former clinton national security advisor sandy berger joins us. >♪
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>> the iraqi capital, baghdad, may for now be safe from the
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militants that overran the northern city of mosul last week in a lightning-fast advance. bloomberg's willem marx looks into america's spending on american military and other countries in today's "big question. -- "big question." >> across northern iraq, an islamist group has been seizing territory while the country's armed forces have terrorized -- have crumbled. the united states armed the same military that has been melting away. $23 taxpayers spent around billion on military assistance there. the iraqi taxpayers matched that own $25 billion from their funds. drop in the ocean compared to u.s. public-sector
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spending on the iraq war, which a recent study put at $1.7 trillion. there are several other major beneficiaries of u.s. military assistance. ofhanistan, where an average eight civilians were killed every day last year, has received $40 billion of military assistance since 9/11. $31 billion has flowed to israel in that same period. $300 million in u.s. military assistance in 2012, equivalent to a quarter of its own national defense budget that year. pakistan has taken nearly $7 trillion in assistance from the billion of assistance from the u.s. this is just a fraction of the $682 billion spent by the u.s.
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on defense overall. >> more on the unrest in iraq. let's now look at what led to this renewed escalation of violence. former national security advisor samuel berger joins me now from washington. welcome back to "bottom line." it is good to see you again. is a rack in the middle of the civil war? thes iraq in the middle of civil war? is the withdrawal of american forces to blame for the current violence? >> it is certainly in the midst of a civil war. i don't think the withdrawal of american forces is a precipitating factor. you can go all the way back to the american invasion in 2002. thatve groups like isis were born and grew up in the opposition resistance to that invasion. i don't really think here the blame game is important. i think what is important here is what are the options that we
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have and how do we deal with the situation that we face. >> critics of the obama administration say that the current situation in iraq was bound to happen, that as soon as the american military left, the vacuum would be filled by extremists. why didn't american money and military training prevent this from happening? >> because the government of prime minister maliki has missed led iraq overmis-ru the last three or four years. they didn't want the united states to stay. we would have preferred to stay. they would not agree to the kind of legal requirements that we need for our military to be in any particular place. governed as a sectarian, anti-sunni leader. he has politicized the military, undone a bunch of what we did, alienated the sunnis, and created a very hostile area in
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the sunni north, where groups like isis, a very extreme sunni group, were able to march in and have a great deal of sympathy from the sunni population. there are only 8000 or 10,000 isis fighters, yet they have been able to overwhelm a much larger iraqi security force because the iraq he security forces not loyal to the government and -- the iraqi security force is not loyal to the government and not willing to die for a government they do not see as legitimate. >> we are hearing that the obama administration would be willing to talk with iran over the deteriorating situation in iraq. do the u.s. and iran have a vested interest in working together, or is there just too much distrust on both sides? >> we share an interest in not
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wanting to see a sunni extremist government in iraq, but i think we should be very careful here and have no illusions. our interest and iran's interests are fundamentally different in iraq. iran seeks to have a compliant government, shia government, in iraq. crescenta shia including iran, iraq, syria, lebanon, which they dominate. that's their vision. our vision is a stable iraq, maybe democratic, but at least multiethnic. we may be able to talk to iran tactically, but we don't share the same outcome were objectives. >>mr mr. berger, the u.s. and iran are scheduled to hold nuclear talks this week in vienna. can we expect a spillover effect? >> i don't think so. i think those nuclear talks are extremely important on their own
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merits. if we could reach an agreement to prevent iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, that would be a fundamentally important agreement, reduce the danger in the middle east, be good for us and be good for our allies. i think it ought to be looked at on its own merits and not tied to other issues in the region. >> mr. berger, what about u.s. options then? if not boots on the ground, what about drone strikes? >> i think that any military options here have to be part of a political, military solution. unless we insist that maliki create a unity government, curb the powers of the prime minister's office, reform the military, then anything we do militarily is going to be seen by large parts of the population as being maliki's air force.
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it is going to drive a lot of moderate sunnis into the hands of the sunni radicals. so, i think we do need to act here. we need to act in an expeditious way, but part of a package which insists that malik he undertake -- that maliki undertake -- >> did you see this happening? was this a foregone conclusion, this violence now? >> iraq has been on the fissure of sunni-shiite division for a long time. it is not surprising that this interrupts -- erupts again. this has been the pattern in iraq since our invasion back in 20the 200's. the whole balance has been affected. >> samuel berger joining us from washington. thanks for your time. always good to get your
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perspective. ahead, ukraine says russia is cutting natural gas supplies. we will see what the ripple effects are when "bottom line" continues in a moment. ♪
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>> this reminder -- there are multiple ways to watch bloomberg tv. we are on the web at bloomberg.com, on your mobile device, at apple tv, and on amazon fire tv. --don's arriving tech scene thriving tech scene is taking on silicon valley. the u.k.'s southeast region has more tech jobs than california. this was the topic of an exclusion confrontation when bloomberg founder michael bloomberg and london mayor boris johnson sat down with "bloomberg
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businessweek's" editor. mr. bloomberg said the diversity of cities like london and new york is exactly why tech companies are drawn to do business there. >> this is where tech wants to go. one of the reasons is the diversity of the two cities. if you're going to build products you are going to sell to the world, you have to know about the world to do have to show it to the world and ask -- about the world. you have to show it to the world and ask what do they want. >> the bloomberg technology summit was the opening of nearly 300 events around the city of london this week. now the latest on ukraine. the ukrainian president says he will propose a detailed peace plan including a cease-fire with separatist rebels in the country's east. that plan could come as early as this week. he spoke as he opened the meeting of the country's national security council. the developments in ukraine continue to have an impact on energy futures.
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we turn to su keenan for the latest on today's commodity reports. >> russia is now cutting off natural gas to ukraine. this is the first time shipments have been halted since the conflict began. we've seen this happen years before. according to ukraine's state gas company, russia's gazprom is only providing enough gas to ukraine's pipeline system to meet the man for european customers. they are not looking -- meet demand for european customers. in other words, they are not looking at meeting ukrainian ne eds. ukraine now must pay its debt and only then will get gas which is paid for upfront. according to analysts, ukraine was ready for this, especially given the increase in conflict. the european union, which depends on russian gas piped was trying toe, broker a deal to keep the shipments going. negotiations ended without a deal. natural gas prices had pared earlier gains. they were higher, in the day.
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in europe they sort -- higher in the day. in europe, they soared 8%. we are seeing oil come down as we head to the close. a lot of support coming from iraq as well. oil prices were up as much as 10 sector.lier in the there have been looking risks, but nobody is projecting -- been lurking risks, but nobody is predicting how quickly this could escalate. they put a dent in earlier gains among which were significant. we saw unrest from iraq and ukraine pushing gold to the highest in three weeks before dropping as we head to the close about unchanged. traders say gold is seeing fresh buying as well as short covering. you don't want to be sure. bloomberg's su keenan with
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the commodities report. we are coming up on 26 minutes past the hour. that means that bloomberg television is "on the markets." here is our senior market correspondent, julie hyman. >> let's take a look at where stocks are trading. we have had a little-changed session. the nasdaq gaining about 2/10 of 1%. estimatedter than industrial production today and a lot of deals that are helping boost sentiment to some extent. that is limited by the rise in oil and continuing tensions in iraq. take a look at a couple of stocks we are watching. covidien in buying a cash and stock deal worth nearly $43 billion. that transaction was unanimously approved by the boards of both companies. it does still need shareholder approval. the book -- combined companies would use covidien to avoid being taxed under it in u.s.
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law. oncell be "on the markets" again in 30 minutes. more "bottom line" is next. ♪
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>> welcome back to the second line" on of "bottom bloomberg television. i am mark crumpton. the imf cut the growth forecast for the economy this year, and also said the federal reserve may have the ability to keep interest rates are zero for longer than investors expect. tom keene sat down with the imf managing director, christine lagarde, and asked about subdued growth. revised downward the 2014 numbers, but we do not inc. it will be a downward spiral. -- we do not think it will be a
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downward spiral. thever, we have revised growth trend on an ongoing basis from where it was on average in the past 50 years or so, to 2%. we have done that on the basis of the aging population and lower productivity taste on the latest trends. so, yes, we have revised downwards but it does not mean we are downbeat for 2014. >> olivia plan chart walked by and i thought of his work in macro economics. this is a profound market. you were suggesting a more subdued gdp for all of the nations. is the u.s. still the locomotive of the global economy? because it is one of those very large, advanced economies, and the largest
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economy in the world to this date. we also believe some of the emerging markets are going to slow down, as china has begun doing, going forward. so at the moment the advanced economies are driving the show because of the high base they came from and the growth percentage they displaced. >> the phrase " subdued inflation" i found remarkable. we had a very good economic report in the u.s. today. what is the probability the imf gets this wrong and return out to a better outcome? >> forecasting is not the science. let's begin with that. second, there is a lot of uncertainty about some of the key numbers. there is uncertainty. let's face it. whether you look at unemployment , employment, analyze the -- althoughn rate --t is not rocket science
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all of that is not rocket science maybe, but not clearly explainable. when we look at inflation there is what we see at the moment, subdued inflation, around the world, particularly advanced economies and yet there has been movement upward rather than downward. are eventually coming out with a recommendation that the said the on the communication and as active as it could in order to explain the uncertainty and when the uncertainty settles and fades that the fed can explain very clearly what is happening so the markets at the other end do not operate on the basis of that certainty plateau they seem to enjoy. inyou spent years washington, long tenure in chicago. here we have the imf speaking to america about the minimum wage and earned income tax credit.
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this comes as eric cantor and republicans reform. you are a great student of american politics. why can the imf talk labor economics to america acolyte of you let during -- lecturing on the minimum wage? >> when we see there are 50 million americans living below the poverty level, many of those working poor, and when we see a quite large number of them are single households, generally held by women, we believe it has macro economic dimension that requires our attention on the and we have to do something about it. >> imf managing director, withtine th christine lagarde tom keene. an enormous amount of economic data, and nothing more important than wednesday's fed meeting, even though no change in policy is forecast. michael mckee doing double duty at the real deal on why we are
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watching this very closely. on inause a lot is going the economy. big data today and tomorrow. it will be an interesting meeting. a lot to talk about, including is the economy starting to accelerate and what will happen with housing? now looking at the prospect of higher oil prices and the impact of that. as you said, not going to make any changes. they are locked into the tapering program, 10 billion each meeting at least until october. not about policy now. basically about when policy will change in the future. >> the famous dot chart. >> the first time they will raise interest rates and how high they will be at the end of the year when they start raising rates. that was the view in december. most all of gradual rise, beginning in 2015. higher rates in 2016. then they went to march, and not
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only would it be higher but higher sooner. janet yellen said do not pay attention. she got nowhere. investors pushed bonds down. yields rose. borrowing costs go higher. investors saying the fed would start tightening sooner. >> why does dr. yellin say we should not pay attention? ofthey use this as a picture what reality will be in a few years, not a prediction of when they will start making moves. go back to mark shaw and look at the chart -- go back to march, and look at the chart, only 16 of them. 19 supposed to be on the open market committee. remixing. an and twoke resigned tw missing. -- the missing. the people giving the predictions not the same.
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you cannot get a clear idea of what they are doing. three new members, stanley others., and tw two even if it is different, it will not tell us the whole lot. >> and there are still two open seats. >> the thing to watch is what they say about the long-term. the very far right, the new normal, a new neutral where the fed does not have to go as high as the chairman was singing. we will see if that level moves down. that would be big news wednesday. economics editor, michael mckee with the real deal. stay with bloomberg for reaction and chairman yellen's conference wednesday. michael mckee will help with the coverage and the news conference :30t begins at 2 washington time. coming up, how the world cup may have helped columbia's president
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get reelected. the latin america report on this monday. stay tuned. ♪
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>> it is time for today's latin america report. colombian president won a inond four year term elections held sunday. the bureau chief joins us on the phone with the details. he won the election yesterday with a much bigger margin than polls predicted. how did he do it? >> that is right. there were no big differences economicmic -- in policy. both in favor of free trade. both had a warm attitude toward mining. very pro-us. it became about the conflict going on for 50 years. santos campaigns on the peace talks with the guerrillas. he cause of this, he was able to build a very large alliance with
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political groups that do not agree with his other policies. >> you recently traveled to an area where the guerrillas have a large presence. how did that go there yoe? a town inled to colombia. this is a town that has been attacked rabidly we more than any other town in colombia. it has been attacked more than 600 times in the past six years. they are surrounded by a group in the mountains. strong presence and control the roads in and out. basically once the same sort of government that cuba has. they keep attacking the town. i visited a local school, which often gets caught in the crossfire's between the guerrillas and the police. this school is just down the street from the police base. very time the farc attack,
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the police returned fire and the school often gets affected by bullets. theow is the war affecting locals? have any children been hurt in the fighting? >> in the most recent attack in april no one was hurt but the by thedid have impact bullets. we saw a classroom were children as young as five study and the wall was gone, one of the windows damaged. no one was injured in this year but in 2009 two teenage girls got a little ones and needed surgery and were hit in the legs by shots. the children are very used to this. a are trained every time they hear gunfire they know they have to get on the floor, keep their heads below the level of the windows with teacher instruction and effectuate the school. they practice the evacuation drills very frequently. >> on a little bit of a
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lighthearted note, some analysts may havedent santos received help from colombia's national soccer team, is that right? >> a lot of people say that. they had a 3-0 win over greece saturday. this is the first time they have been in the tournament for 16 years. there is huge interest in it. a local politics professor said this probably helped generate a mood of national optimism which helps the incumbent. thatpeople were worried everyone would get drunk and no one would bother to vote, but that seems not to have happened. turnout actually went up compared to the first round three weeks ago. >> matthew bristow joining us on the phone. thank you. that is your latin america report for this monday. if you want to work for audi, you better know how to drive. pass ave the top ross
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rigorous driving test. matt miller passes -- hits the road with the audi a north american president. that is coming up when we return in just a moment. ♪
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>> sonoma is home to great wine, scenic views, and an exceptional racetrack. sonoma raceway is where audi teaches customers and prospects how to with around in the racecar. matt miller and the president of the americas took the 14,000 plus car for a spin. >> want to come for a ride in one of these? >> not everyday you get to race around the track with the head of a major automaker. today i am doing just that with of president of audi america's. to ensure executives are selling cars they can vouch for, audi requires them to get out from the c suite and behind the
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wheel. >> one of the interest thing does, thet audi board members go around the world and drive the cars. they do this throughout the year. the second thing they do, as an executive you have to get an audi drivers license. you do not get behind the wheel of a prototype unless you have been certified to drive. it is a rigorous test for an airstrip in germany. >> we are driving the company's track ready r-8. r8.in 2007 we launched the wanted, could we create a home for this car for the people who wanted to purchase it and people who purchased it to experience what it was really capable of. one of the first places to land on was sonoma. when we got to the track and noticed how technical it was, absolutely perfect. driving school
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are a natural extension for a brand that has both their name in racing. titless more le monde than any other brand. >> a lot of cars and tracks can go fast. cart,ikes to make a quick but can you make it fundamentally sound? >> previously you just sold the car and said goodbye. now it is important to keep a closer relationship to the customer after the point of sale? >> 100%. you can build and an ad campaign, but the greatness is out on thegetting it track. the overwhelming majority are doing this because they love driving and are passionate and enthusiastic. >> how many end up come out and end up fighting an r8? >> the bottom line it all comes down to selling cars, but you might as well have a good time while you are at it. >> you can get tangled up with
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sales, pricing, but you also forget this is a heck of a fun business. for those of you going online to look to buy one of these cars for $14,000 -- whoops, 114,000. >> you would be lucky to get it for that. once you start adding things onto it, like i would put the carbon fiber blades on the site, then it gets up to 100 $50,000. it is really a premium sports car. >> talk to me about the track days. how do they help the bottom line? >> you do not have to have your own audi to go there. a lot of people want to buy one when they walked out. as he said, the conversion rate is extremely high. no companies ever tell you what it is. it gets you up involved and you want more of their products. >> how fast did you go?
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longnoma does not have a straight. i was only getting up to about 140. much more challenging track than any of those i have driven on the east coast. a lot of turns. a very tight track. >> audi won its 13th championship. >> that is right. yesterday. almost neck and neck with porsche. they won 13 as of yesterday. 16.he won a very challenging thing. number one and number two place in the very tough endurance race. >> you do not like any worse for wear with the geforce hitting you when you were whipping around the track. >> one of the most exciting things you can do, i would recommend to any children becoming an automotive journalist. >> thank you very much.
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another check of market movers is on the other side of the brick. "bottom line." continues in just a moment. ♪
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>> stay with bloomberg for live comprehensive coverage of the fed decision and that that conference on tuesday at 2:00 washington time with the decision and the news conference following a half an hour later at 2:30. get the latest headlines at the top of the hour streaming on your tablet and bloomberg.com. that does it for this edition of "bottom line." i am mark crumpton reporting from new york . on the markets is next. it is 56 past the hour. that means bloomberg television is on the markets. i am julie hyman. an hour left in today's session.
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prettyead to the close, much steady where we have been for much of the day, a slightly higher market. last week we sell stocks fall for the first week in a month. amid -- a bit more of a downward bias, in part due to what is happening in iraq. creating a lift in the price of oil and concerned generally. in terms of what we are seeing today, utilities and energies gaining the most. financials and materials following -- falling back the most. treasury market seeing yields move higher. now seeing a turnaround. a couple of things happening to affect the perception. the imf cutting the forecast for fromrowth to two percent 2.8%. in terms of individual stocks, looking at shares of level three. buying pw to get direct connection to business
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customers. contente largest delivery companies. continuing with the telecom theme, black hairy due to report fiscal first-quarter earnings this thursday. analysts estimating a loss of $.26. the big question is, do the quarterly results matter that much? john butler joins me now from princeton on more to watch for there's day. much you say overall, how do investors care about the quarterly results versus the bigger on the long-term picture from blackberry? >> not a lot. this is a turnaround story with a great new ceo named john chen. the focus on the quarter will be, where is he taking the company? what is the cash burn rate like him and what can we expect in coming quarters? he has made some promises he needs to keep. atwhen you are looking declining market share that is coming out from smartphone
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shipments, trying to emphasize outside of the area. what exactly are they doing? in and looked up blackberry and sent everyone before me has looked at this as a device company, but the reality is it has a portfolio of assets, including black airy messenger, a big patent portfolio him so he is looking to monetize at all and take the company more into services and software. and we saw that last quarter were services and software represented a bigger percentage of revenue than the handsets. >> you mentioned the cash burn issue. how much of an issue is that and how much time does blackberry have? >> it is big. on the inside they have two quarters but they have done a lot to raise money, including selling real estate. in reality they probably have three to four quarters but john chen has said by the end of the year he wants to be cash flow
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positive and i would argue he needs to meet that promise. >> we will see what happens. really appreciate it. war on the markets a bit later. -- more. we have stocks just barely in the brain there on the s&p. dow jones slightly in the red. investors weighing the conflict in iraq against steelmaking. i am trish regan and "street smart" starts right now. ♪ everyone, to the most important hour of the session. 59 minutes to go until the closing bell. addresses alibaba concerns ahead of the record expected ipo. the 27 earners to control board nomination. this may have some on wall street were read. islamic militants in iraq

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